Carmelo Anthony: A Trade Primer

When LeBron James and Chris Bosh took their respective talents to South Beach this offseason, they stripped their former teams of their identity and direction. It’s why the Cleveland Cavaliers, coming off a season in which they posted the best record in the NBA, are likely going to have to fight for a playoff spot this year and why the Toronto Raptors project to be stuck in a state of perpetual mediocrity for the near future. Per NetsDaily.com, in return for LeBron James, the Cavaliers received…

• Two first-round picks, that must be used starting in 2013 and ending by 2017
• 2012 second-round pick Miami received from New Orleans
• A future second-round pick the Heat acquired from Oklahoma City
• The option to swap first round picks with the Heat in 2012
• A $14,500,000 exception that the Cavs must use in trades before July 9, 2011

…while the Raptors got a return of

• Its own 2011 first-round pick (initially sent to Miami in the 2009 Shawn Marion-Jermaine O’Neal trade)
• A $14,500,000 trade exception that the Raptors must use in trades before July 9, 2011.

The Denver Nuggets will probably use these two cases as cautionary tales as they deal with a seemingly inevitable parting with their own superstar. Carmelo Anthony, who is hitting the prime of his career at the age of 26, was the only member of the four 2003 draft class “superfriends” to sign a five-year contract extension with his respective team and so, his contract expires in the summer of 2011. The Nuggets, however, have the ability to offer him a three-year extension worth $65 million, but Anthony hasn’t yet agreed to sign the papers. When approached by the Denver Post, Anthony could only issue a statement that eerily paralleled one LeBron gave Cavalier fans and a disgruntled Chris Paul, “At this point in time, I have to do what’s best for me and my family. I’m just taking my time, figuring out if I want to take that extension or not.”

The latest on Anthony comes from Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports who confirmed what had long seemed inevitable: that Anthony had already made clear to the Denver front office his desire to be dealt from the Nuggets. The Nuggets recent hire of Masal Ujiri as their general manager has likely served as the opening of a league-wide bidding war for Carmelo Anthony.

Reports have been flying around over the last few weeks, detailing Anthony’s disgruntlement with the Nuggets, specifically citing his ties to his hometown of New York. Ken Berger of CBS reported Anthony was already pining for a move to the Knicks, an idea that was even brought up in Anthony’s wedding reception by guests Chris Paul and Knick recruit Amar’e Stoudemire who jokingly proposed the move in their own congratulatory toasts (incidentally, Nuggets owner Stan Kroenke was present). The New York Daily News revealed that former Knick general manager Isiah Thomas – who was recently rejected from a role as a ‘consultant’ for the team – has privately guaranteed Anthony will become a Knick. All reports seemed to also suggest Anthony would be dealt by opening night.

Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated was first to offer up two other potential suitors for Anthony’s services: Houston and New Jersey, citing “league sources” who told him Anthony would be open to an extend-and-trade deal to either club. In the aforementioned Yahoo! report, Wojnarowski claimed the Clippers and Nets were the frontrunners, with the Rockets, Warriors and Bobcats still in the mix. Since then, innumerable reports have thrown out the Timberwolves, Magic and Kings as other teams interested.

(Just as a quick aside, it’s certainly revealing that there seems to be a clear divide in the opinions of the general news media and the New York media, where the latter seems intent on pushing the idea of an inevitable Madison Square Garden marriage. Sound familiar? These are the same sources that spent the better part of two years entertaining the idea of LeBron James and Chris Bosh going to the Knicks (which I had discussed with great disgust here) and then moved on to the prospects of picking up Chris Paul, rumors that were eventually extinguished by the Hornets’ dealing Darren Collison. In fact, should the Knicks strike out in this Anthony sweepstakes, they’ll have unsuccessfully attempted to sign four of the top five picks of the 2003 draft (James, Anthony, Bosh and Wade) but only picking up Darko Milicic.)

The Carmelo Anthony trade front has since quieted down considerably as the Nuggets are expected to play their cards close to the chest and out-wait the many suitors to see who blinks first. Ujiri has said that he still has realistic hopes to convince Anthony to stay but honestly, how often does that change a superstar’s mind? Cleveland thought they had James sold when they met with him in July. I’m willing to bet he’s changing zip codes by mid-season, if not opening night.

What will a Carmelo Anthony trade look like?

Historically speaking – and there was a bit of a debate about this on our Facebook page – teams who have dealt discontent star players have rarely received an equal-value star in return. Obvious cases easily come to mind like the outrageously lopsided Pau Gasol trade that gave the Lakers a multiple-time All-Star bound for the Hall of Fame (and who would become the most skilled big man in the NBA) in exchange for Marc Gasol, Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie and two first round picks. And oh yeah, the Grizzles also threw in a second round pick to sweeten the deal. While Marc Gasol’s since become a promising young center, this was nothing short of robbery by the Lakers. The result: three Finals appearances and two championships for Los Angeles and years of Chris Wallace-inspired, lottery-bound mediocrity for Memphis. Another example would be the Vince Carter trades, first to New Jersey then to Orlando. The former landed Toronto Alonzo Mourning (who refused to play for them), Eric Williams, Aaron Williams and two first-round picks that became worthless while the latter got New Jersey two veterans they didn’t need (Rafer Alston and Tony Battie) and a young player they discarded this summer (Courtney Lee).

The closest thing to a superstar return has been either the 2008 Denver-Detroit swap of Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups or the 2007 Boston-Minnesota deal that gave Minnesota a budding All-Star big in Al Jefferson, among other pieces, for Kevin Garnett. But looking at how each team turned out post-trade shows that these deals were just as one-sided as any other deal as Billups guided Denver to a Western Conference Finals appearance and Garnett powered the Celtics to a championship, also taking the Defensive Player of the Year award while Iverson went on to publicly humiliate the Pistons – infamously saying he’d rather retire than play off the bench – before a random stint with the Grizzlies sunk his career and Al Jefferson ‘starred’ for a Timberwolves team that won just 15 games last year. You could argue for the Jason Kidd to Dallas trade getting New Jersey an All-Star in Devin Harris but if you’re being honest, nobody could have seen his emergence coming, especially considering he was a part-time starter in Dallas and usually the fourth or fifth option on offense. Plus, New Jersey hasn’t made the playoffs since.

Traditionally, there have been three consistent components in a trade for a superstar: a young player, draft picks, and anything to give the team financial flexibility as soon as possible, whether it be cash considerations (the maximum is $3,000,000), a trade exception (which is equal to the net salary difference), expiring contracts or taking on a bad contract. Just look at these recent All-Star trades:

Return for Jason Kidd (traded from New Jersey Nets to Dallas Mavericks, 2008)

Young player: Devin Harris
Draft pick(s): 2010 first-round pick
Financial flexibility: $3,000,000 cash, Keith Van Horn (subsequently retired after the trade)

Return for Joe Johnson (traded from Phoenix Suns to Atlanta Hawks, 2005)

Young player: Boris Diaw
Draft pick(s): Two protected first-round picks
Financial flexibility: Essentially the motivation behind the trade; Suns’ owner Robert Sarver didn’t want to spend the money to re-sign Joe Johnson and saved money on taking on a cheaper contract. It also gave the suns a $6 million trade exception.

Return for Shaquille O’Neal (traded from Los Angeles Lakers to Miami Heat, 2004)

Young player: Lamar Odom, Caron Butler
Draft pick(s): Two protected first-round picks
Financial flexibility: Brian Grant was released after one season; less committed salary

One exception would be the Suns’ trade for Shaquille O’Neal in exchange for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks which was a humorous mess for both sides. Same goes with the Iverson trade from Philadelphia to Denver.

While we’d expect a Carmelo Anthony trade to follow suit, the Nuggets’ return will likely be greater as there is apparently an unusually large number of teams gearing up to trade for him; it’s a seller’s market.

Looking at some prospective bidders

This list is hardly comprehensive but, if dissecting reports are any indication, I’ve narrowed it down to three times who are appear to be the most likely suitors for Anthony’s services.

New Jersey Nets

– Likely potential trade offer components

Young players: Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, Terrence Williams, Damion James, Anthony Morrow

Draft pick(s): 2011: Nets’ first-round pick, Nets’ second-round pick, Warriors’ second-round pick; 2012: Nets’ first-round pick, Nets’ second-round pick, Warriors’ first-round pick, Heat’s second-round pick, Bulls’ second-round pick; 2013: Nets’ first-round pick, Nets’ second-round pick

Financial flexibility: Troy Murphy’s $11.96 million expiring contract, $3,000,000 from Prokhorov’s wallet, a $2.9 million trade exception (NetsDaily explains: “It expires June 30.  There are restrictions on their use… they can’t be traded with a player for example… but they can be valuable. If the Nets wanted to trade a draft pick to – or swap picks with – a team in return for a player, they can use a trade exception to do so.  Trade exceptions can also be used to grab a player off the waiver wire.”)

– Commentary

It seems a given that Devin Harris will be included in any Anthony trade. The Nets seem adamant on not including promising young center Brook Lopez in any deal and it’s doubtful Anthony would agree to sign an extension with a Lopez-less Nets team anyway. John Rothstein, a college basketball insider, suggested that the Nets’ likely package would be Harris, Favors and a combination of picks, which would be a high price to pay when compared to typical return value for disgruntled superstars considering the Nets privately believe Favors can blossom into a power forward of, at minimum, a Chris Bosh tier. Other theories have a Devin Harris, Troy Murphy, Terrence Williams and picks package going to the Mile High City but that is likely optimistic from New Jersey’s point-of-view. I say Favors’ inclusion makes or breaks the deal.

New Jersey’s impending move to Carmelo Anthony’s native Brooklyn is probably why he’s apparently open to a New Jersey trade, even with last year’s league-worst record of 12-70.

Houston Rockets

– Likely potential trade offer components

Young players: Chase Budinger, Aaron Brooks, Jordan Hill, Courtney Lee, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, Kyle Lowry

Draft pick(s): 2011: The right to switch first-round picks with the Knicks, Rockets’ second-round pick; 2012: Rockets’ first-round pick, Knicks’ first-round pick Rockets’ second-round pick; 2013: Rockets’ first-round pick, Rockets’ second-round pick

Financial flexibility: Shane Battier ($7,354,500), Jared Jeffries ($6,883,800) and Chuck Hayes ($1,972,500) are expiring contracts.

– Commentary

Although they’ve dropped from ‘favorite’ status the last few weeks, I still like their odds because of the number and quality of young pieces they have to offer and their status as an immediate playoff team in the Western Conference. This team was practically designed to make a superstar trade while maintaining a nice balance of youth and veteran presence. Though no talks of a specific package have been given by any national or local writers, the Rockets’ offer – because they’ll surely at least give a call – may look something like Kevin Martin, Aaron Brooks, Jordan Hill and Jermaine Taylor, as HoopsWorld suggested. I’d be infinitely amused if the Rockets were able to steal him away from New York using the Knicks’ own picks and/or Jared Jeffries’ expiring contract.

Orlando Magic

– Likely potential trade offer components

Young players: Jameer Nelson, J.J. Reddick, Ryan Anderson, Brandon Bass, Marcin Gortat

Draft pick(s): 2011: Magic’s first-round pick, Magic’s second-round pick; 2012: Magic’s first-round pick, Magic’s second-round pick; 2013: Magic’s first-round pick, Magic’s second-round pick

Financial flexibility: Vince Carter’s only partially-guaranteed contract ($4,000,000) for the 2011-2012 season

– Commentary

I was going to put the Los Angeles Clippers in this spot. I had faith in their ability to entice Denver using Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Eric Bledsoe and, if they were willing, Blake Griffin. In the end, it didn’t feel right. Donald Sterling’s still the owner of the team, they’ve probably been the loser-est franchise in sports, they’re still going to be second-fiddle to the Lakers in their own stadium, let alone their own city. And I couldn’t see Carmelo agreeing to an extension with the Clippers, no matter how enticing the city.

Should the Magic somehow pull Carmelo Anthony, depending on what they give up, they could immediately challenge, if not claim advantage over, the other Eastern superpowers. Just two years removed from a Finals berth, adding a superstar of Anthony’s caliber would likely make them an immediate contender. Now, I don’t know what the Magic are willing to offer but reports are that they’re throwing their name out there, and contacted Kroenke prior to Ujiri’s hiring. If they have to give away Nelson to go along with Carter, I say that’s a no-brainer. Even throwing Gortat in there, who they severely underuse and overpay anyway, it’s a move they have to seriously consider. I don’t know if that makes for a frontrunner package in the Nuggets’ eyes but the prospects are scary if Orlando does decide to roll the dice.

Final note

Lost in this talk about Carmelo Anthony’s next team is the idea of what could be next for the Denver Nuggets in a post-Anthony setting. In short, if Anthony does leave, it’s looking awfully gloomy in Denver. An Anthony departure could trigger a series of separate moves in a slippery mile-high slope. Consider that J.R. Smith, Chauncey Billups, Nene and Kenyon Martin all have the option to leave the team after this year. Yes, the Nuggets could be losing their five best players all within the span of a season.

What motivation would Billups have to stay? An Anthony-less Nuggets team would essentially mean the end of deep playoff runs for at least several seasons, which Billups probably won’t be willing to wait around for, in spite of his ties to his hometown. Depending on the return, Billups’ impending free agency could trigger either an in-season trade (possibly to a contender seeking Billups’ veteran leadership and experience) or an offseason walkout. J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin may follow the same path, or may even be traded earlier, a prospect the Nuggets have been chasing for a while, according to some reports, which may just be hinging on whether Anthony decides he wants to leave. Nene is the most likely of the five to stay, as he has a player option next year for $11,600,000. Still, he’s obviously not the type of player who can carry a team. And it gets worse.

How about George Karl? Coming off a bout with cancer, he says he’s been cleared to coach for next season. All that he needs, he says, is a PET scan every quarter year. But will an uncompetitive Nuggets team be enough to convince him to stay after the season, when his contract expires?

It’d be such a shame for this team to self-destruct so rapidly. As NBA.com’s Scott Howard-Cooper writes:

A year ago, they were coming off the unexpected ride to the conference finals, a particularly joyous ride after Nene and Karl had come back from cancer. Martin had come back from a pair of major knee injuries to remain a defensive factor. Andersen had come back from a drug ban and Billups had come back to his hometown in an early-season deal and helped contain the emotions that sprayed in every direction. Mark Warkentien was voted Executive of the Year by his peers.

The roster that previously too often led with emotions had learned to play with composure, won big games in tight fourth quarters on the road and made itself into the second-best team in the West.

What of that team? He can only conclude with a solitary, “Farewell.”